President Donald Trump on Saturday simultaneously attempted to talk up his economic achievements while warning of financial doom and gloom if he is not reelected in 2020.
“The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go,” wrote the president on Twitter Saturday morning. “However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before!”
While a number of traditional economic indicators, including unemployment and job growth, have continued to be a positive for the Trump administration, a recent survey from Bankrate.com found that nearly half of American adults — some 47 million people — feel they are currently worse off now than they were before the Great Recession. One of the reasons, notes the survey, is the lack of wage recovery. Around 55 percent of survey respondents said they are now making the same — or less — than they were in 2007, before the economic collapse that took down markets on a global scale.
Despite the significant corporate tax cuts pushed by the Trump administration and Republicans on Capitol Hill, much of the money saved by large businesses has not been put into higher pay for their workers.
Steven Rosenthal of the Tax Policy Center noted in February that, during 2018, “large U.S. corporations spent more than $1.1 trillion to repurchase their stock rather than invest in new plants and equipment or pay their workers more.”
A recent analysis by Vox of the latest jobs data from the federal government concluded that while unemployment has remained at a historically low level, the “small pool of available workers still hasn’t translated to much higher pay: Workers only got an average hourly pay raise of 6 cents in May, the same increase they got a month earlier.”
Earlier this month, Congressman Kevin Brady, a co-author of the 2017 tax cut bill, told a moderator at the Peter G. Peterson Foundation’s annual Fiscal Summit that “it’s hard to know” what percentage of the tax cuts would pay for itself.
Just this week, the Treasury Department revealed that the cuts will result in even less corporate tax revenue than originally expected. The agency reported a 31 percent drop in corporate tax revenue last year, nearly two times steeper than was originally forecasted.
Trump — who is slated to officially launch his reelection campaign this week in Florida — may face a significant challenge from several of the two-dozen Democrats currently running for the 2020 party nomination.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that Trump would likely lose head-to-head elections against each of these six candidates: former Vice President Joe Biden; Senators Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker; and Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
While the president has long brushed off such poll results, pointing to the many 2016 election polls that showed him losing to Hillary Clinton, ABC News reports that the campaign’s internal polling also found Trump lagging behind Biden in key states — including Pennsylvania and Florida — the president won in the previous election.